SCIENCE | Our researchers have published a scientific article on crisis incubation periods and early decision-making
Researchers at the Crisis Research Centre, Anne-May Nagel and Hannes Nagel, have published a high-level academic article, Team Sensemaking in Crisis Incubation Period: A Case of a Superspreader Event in Estonia, in the NISPAcee Journal of Public Administration and Policy. The article examines how decisions were shaped at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, when the crisis was already unfolding but its true scale had not yet become clear.
In the early stages of a crisis, the problem may not be that decision-makers lack information. The issue may also lie in how the available information is interpreted collectively and which possible explanations are regarded as relevant in the course of discussion. The article examines the decision to allow a mass event to take place in Saaremaa in March 2020, which was later associated with the emergence of one of Estonia’s first major COVID-19 outbreaks.
The study focuses on the so-called crisis incubation period – the phase in which a crisis is already developing, but its potential consequences are not yet fully visible. Using the Saaremaa case, the researchers analysed 17 media articles and five stakeholder interviews and mapped the network of team sensemaking involved in the decision-making process.
The study shows that team sensemaking focused largely on gathering available information and refining existing interpretations. At the same time, individuals may have noticed warning signs, questioned prevailing assumptions or proposed alternative interpretations, but these perspectives did not always reach the centre of collective decision-making. This helps explain why, in the early stages of a crisis, warning signs already present in the available information may still go unnoticed.
Anne-May and Hannes Nagel had already presented the topic of the article at the IIAS-DARPG Conference in India in 2025, where the Crisis Research Centre introduced its research on team sensemaking and decision-making during the crisis incubation period. The presentation examined the same case and discussed how constrained sensemaking processes may influence decisions in situations where the true scale of a crisis is still emerging.
🟠 Read the full scientific article here and the news item about the presentation delivered at the 2025 conference in India here.
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