Crisis Lens is not a daily news section. Its focus is slower and more in-depth analysis: why a conflict, political confrontation, humanitarian crisis, technological risk, or state vulnerability develops into a crisis; which historical, political, and societal factors intensify it; and what can be learned from such cases for understanding, preventing, and managing crises.

Over the years, our researchers have published dozens of analytical overviews on geopolitical crises, security-related phenomena, and key issues in international politics. Several of these analyses have previously appeared in print in the Estonian Defence League’s magazine Kaitse Kodu!. Since March 2026, the Crisis Research Centre has been bringing these analyses systematically to its website, accompanied by specially created illustrations.

Dr Mariia Tyschenko (Ukraine), head of Poruch, one of Ukraine’s largest NGOs, gave a presentation on cooperation between the third sector and local government in Ukraine at the final seminar of the Crisis Research Centre’s K-24 project “Crisis Preparedness of Communities – Where do we stand?” on May 28.

Anne-May Nagel, co-founder of the Crisis Research Centre, will introduce the presentation with an overview of the organization’s 2024 Tallinn and Kohtla-Järve community-based population protection projects. The video is in English.

🟧🟦 The panel discussion and its recording were supported by the Estonian Ministry of the Interior through the National Foundation for Civil Society.

Photo and video: the panel discussion on May 28 (Crisis Research Centre, 2025).

On a sunny Saturday, March 15, nearly 50 Kohtla-Järve community members gathered at the Wiru Sports Centre for a training session. They all shared a common goal: to improve their crisis skills, which could be accomplished in two ways: mental health first aid crisis training and first aid training. The goal of the crisis-focused Mental Health First Aid training was to give the community a chance to learn basic psychological first aid techniques and principles for crisis situations.

Practical exercises were also used to improve listening, noticing, and helping skills. The training focused on psychological support for self and community members to maintain their ability to think and act rationally during a crisis. Furthermore, the training emphasised that providing mental first aid in a difficult situation reduces the need for professional help later on. The Mental Health First Aid training, led by clinical psychologist Kadi Parve (NGO Peaasjad), will continue as an online training, with participants gathering for another day of learning.

During the first aid training, members of the Kohtla-Järve community learnt how to administer first aid using practical tools, and common first aid myths were debunked. Participants were able to practise CPR on a resuscitation manikin (some for the first time), and the proper use of an AED resuscitator was discussed together. Andrus Lehtmets, a paramedic and first aid trainer with extensive practical experience, provided participants with examples of both good and bad first aid.

Saturday’s trainings include first aid (by paramedic Andrus Lehtmets), mental health first aid in a crisis (by clinical psychologists from the NGO Peaasjad), as well as the Women’s Voluntary Defence Organisation survival trainings, which will take place in Väike-Õismäe. There will also be online trainings – you can learn how to prepare a family crisis plan from instructors from the Tallinn Municipal Police, and online trainings by paramilitary Women’s Voluntary Defence Organisation will focus on smart evacuation.

“The trainings are a good opportunity to brush up your crisis skills. We encourage everyone to take advantage of this opportunity, we have top-class trainers and the training is free of charge for the participants,” said Hannes Nagel, Head of the Crisis Research Centre. “More broadly, the project aims to raise the level of crisis preparedness of people in our area. If we each have a broader skill base, we can be prepared for the unexpected and help our family, friends and community,” he said.

A total of 25 training sessions will take place between February and May on a variety of topics. The first groups are already full! The project team thanks the Haabersti district government for contributing to the project.

For registration, please visit www.kruk.ee/oismae.

🟧🟦 The activities of the K-24 project will be carried out by the Crisis Research Centre, and the implementation of the project activities is supported by the Civil Society Foundation through the Ministry of the Interior.

The International Research Institute of Disaster Science (IRIDeS) is a research institute at Tohoku University in Japan, established in 2012 in response to the Great East Japan Earthquake and tsunami of 2011. IRIDeS is made up of several research departments focusing on risk assessment and disaster mitigation, humanitarian and social sciences, disaster medicine, and practical research and collaboration. Their shared goal is to understand the physical mechanisms of natural disasters, develop effective prevention and mitigation technologies, and support post-disaster recovery and reconstruction efforts.

One of the key projects of the IRIDeS in Japan is the Global Centre for Disaster Statistics, which collects and analyzes disaster data worldwide. The goal is to improve disaster prevention and support informed policy-making. “Through extensive research, international collaboration, and community-based initiatives, IRIDeS strives to reduce the impact of natural disasters and contribute to the creation of resilient and sustainable societies,” said Hannes Nagel, head of the Crisis Research Center.

Building collaborative networks is crucial for the Crisis Research Center, as it enables the exchange of knowledge and best practices that help both researchers and local governments better prepare for crises. “Japan’s experience highlights the importance of long-term and systematic risk management – our role is to help Estonian municipalities benefit from these insights. At the same time, we can offer useful experience to Japan, particularly in engaging communities in civil protection preparedness. Cooperation in exchanging such knowledge helps build more resilient and better-prepared societies on both sides,” added Nagel.

Photo: Meeting on February 17 with Professor Takako Izumi (Director of the APRU Multi-Hazards Program, IRIDeS) and Associate Professor Sebastien Penmellen Boret (Tohoku University, IRIDeS; KRUK, 2025).

The theme of this year’s conference is the “Next Generation Administrative Reforms – Empowering Citizens and Reaching the Last Mile” services. The conference will feature plenary sessions and panel discussions, but also thematic workshops where you can get feedback from top researchers in your field of research. It will also be a good opportunity to network and make new contacts.

The Crisis Research Centre will co-author a presentation on February 12. The panel will be on intergovernmental coordination, convened by the COST network. “This is the first time that the Crisis Research Centre is in Asia, and it is gratifying to see that in just three years we have succeeded in building an international network of wide-ranging cooperation. One of the organisers of the conference is the Department of Administrative Reforms and Public Grievances (DARPG) under the Indian Ministry of Personnel, Public Grievances, and Pensions,” said Hannes Nagel, Head of the Crisis Research Centre.

“In our presentation, we focused on the process of team-based meaning-making in the early stages of a crisis, before key decisions are made. We explored how multi-level decision-makers dealt with the incubation period of the COVID-19 pandemic with the authorisation of a possible superspreader event in March 2020 in Saaremaa.”

The analysis was based on data-frame theory and included content analysis of media coverage and semi-structured interviews with representatives of multi-level stakeholders. The results show that team meaning-making at this critical stage was mainly limited to mapping the data and the framework and to refining the framework, which ultimately led to a flawed decision.

The Crisis Research Centre study highlights the complex dynamics that shaped the decisions taken in the early phase of the crisis and underlines the importance of team meaning-making in a pre-crisis situation. The process analysed shows how decisions made during the incubation period can be biased by limited meaning-making activities, to the exclusion of critical reflection and alternative scenarios.The results of the study will help to understand how to better manage early crisis decisions in the future to avoid similar mistakes and ensure more effective crisis management.

1. The ABC of Evacuation (in Estonian, trainers from the paramilitary Women’s Voluntary Defence Organisation):