The synchronisation of the Baltic electricity grids with the continental European electricity grid is one of the region’s most significant energy security initiatives in recent years. The project, which increased the stability and independence of the Estonian electricity system, also eliminated an increasingly serious geopolitical and technical crisis threat associated with the previous reliance on the BRELL electricity grid in Russia and Belarus.

Prior to synchronisation, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania were part of the BRELL interconnection, which allowed Russian system operators to control the frequency of the electricity network. This meant that any political or technical conflict could result in uncontrolled blackouts in the Baltic States. For example, Russia could have disconnected unilaterally, depriving Estonia of a reliable electricity supply and causing economic and social havoc. Synchronisation with the European electricity grid eliminated the immediate threat of a crisis and made Estonia’s energy supply more resilient to external shocks. It also improved integration into the European energy system, resulting in a more diverse risk distribution and a faster and more efficient response to grid disruptions.

While synchronisation reduced one of the major geopolitical risks, it also introduced new challenges and threats. Technically, it was a complicated process that necessitated extensive planning and testing to avoid widespread power outages. Economically, it was also an expensive undertaking, necessitating significant investments in new substations and stabilisation mechanisms. The complexity of the coordination process introduced its own risks; because this was a project involving the three Baltic States and the larger European energy grid, it necessitated very precise cooperation among the various system operators to ensure a seamless transition. Until full synchronisation was achieved, there was also a theoretical risk that Russia would disconnect before the Baltic States were ready to operate independently or through the new system.

Synchronisation was also critical in the larger context of the energy crisis. In recent years, Europe has experienced an energy crisis due to a variety of factors, including Russian aggression against Ukraine, market instability, and the complexity of the transition to renewable energy. Estonia used to rely heavily on imported electricity, leaving it vulnerable to energy price shocks and supply disruptions. After synchronisation, Estonia will be better protected from power outages and will have greater access to the European electricity market, allowing it to better deal with energy crises. It has also created more opportunities to invest in renewable energy and energy storage solutions, which will help reduce reliance on fossil fuels and ensure long-term energy security. At the same time, Estonia’s energy infrastructure is vulnerable to military threats, so this is only the beginning of a major success story in energy crisis preparedness, crisis management capacity building, and critical service protection.

The latter will continue to require significant investment because electricity is the backbone of any modern country, without which no critical infrastructure, such as health, communications, or industry, can function. Synchronisation is thus part of a larger strategy to increase Estonia’s and the region’s resilience to crises and unexpected disruptions.