National food reserve only for a few: sounds like The Hunger Games

The National Audit Office has audited the state of the country’s food reserves: whether the reserves exist and to what extent they can be put into use in a crisis. It emerged that even in 2026 the country does not have food reserves to the extent the government has set as a goal—14 days’ worth of food for the entire population, i.e. about 1.3 million people. Instead, the managers of the Estonian Stockpiling Centre have come up with their own goal—a food reserve for a small part of society.

Food reserves are a critically important part of food security—compared to the healthcare system, they are like emergency medical services, which must be immediately available in a crisis. The National Audit Office’s aim was precisely to verify the existence of the food reserves and how quickly they can be brought into use. The report shows that the country still does not have food reserves to the extent the government has set as a goal. There is no 14-day food reserve for the entire population, the creation of which the government has tasked the Estonian Stockpiling Centre (ESC) with.
 
ESC has, on its own initiative, instead pursued a different target, under which ca 130,000 people—i.e. only a few, just 10% of the population—are covered by food reserves for 30 days. The National Audit Office also doubts whether even this reserve aligns with reality: it has stated clearly that “the set target level does not take into account the possible needs of any specific emergency or national defence crisis,” meaning that as a goal it is, as Auditor General Janar Holm noted, “plucked out of thin air.”¹ In the post-audit counter-communication by the Estonian Stockpiling Centre (ESC), however, there is an attempt to divert attention away from the very serious lack of reserves, talking about everything other than the lack of reserves itself.²
 
To illustrate the seriousness of the situation, it is appropriate to use a few real-life examples. Applied to a similar situation in a family, this would mean that although the plan was to buy a food reserve for the entire family, only, for example, the father buys it for himself. The remaining family members can figure out on their own how to cope. Probably no further explanation is needed to understand that this is not a normal way to behave.
 
One can also imagine a parallel from military, national defence, where the Ministry of Defence gives the Estonian Centre for Defence Investments (ECDI) the task of procuring 100 000 shells, 155mm calibre. ECDI decides instead to procure something else altogether, and in a different quantity—for example, 122mm calibre and 500 000 pieces—saying that “it’s almost the same anyway” or that it is some kind of “interim goal”. Since the Estonian Defence Forces cannot actually use what was purchased (because the 122mm howitzers were long ago given to Ukraine; with the wrong calibre there is nothing you can do) and the client’s assignment was ignored, at least two things would likely happen: non-performance would be established and someone would be held responsible. It is obvious that such an error cannot be left uncorrected in any serious way. Otherwise, if indifference is also the norm on the military national defence side, one must ask—where is the credibility of national defence?
 
Lack of food reserves means hunger
Food reserves are important in themselves: their existence affects every person’s life and the functioning of society at the start of a crisis, when the risk of panic is greatest and, in the case of war, the state could even collapse. From a longer-term perspective, concern about the entire food-security chain is of course justified. Local production and the movement of goods across the border are important, but the risks associated with those, too, are mitigated at the beginning of a crisis by that same on-site food reserve. Therefore, shortcomings in food reserves must not be buried under the argument that there are problems in areas X and Y as well and that we shouldn’t talk only about food reserves. We must talk about them, because they are also independently very important.
 
At this point it is important to emphasise that most of the national food reserve must be deployable relatively quickly (preferably immediately). If food cannot be obtained from shops and household supplies run out, dissatisfaction inevitably arises, followed by panic. If the reserve requires energy and large-scale processing (turning grain into flour) or complex distribution, it may exist on paper but still fail to reach people in time.
 
Food shortages during a crisis, however, pose an internal security threat, because the risk increases of moving toward theft and looting. A food reserve is therefore also a very important objective for internal security, as it helps prevent a large share of the problems that tend to arise quickly in crises when food is scarce. Thus, a food reserve is a very important objective for the state in order to ensure the state’s ability to function and the continued functioning of society even in the most difficult times.
 
High-paid insubordinate freelancing
It is also important to note that ESC was created precisely to end a situation where each ministry dealt with reserves on its own and the result was uneven capability and diffuse responsibility.3 The idea of a central system was to consolidate tasks and responsibility in one place. However, no one seems to have foreseen that the central administrator, a “strategic enterprise”, would begin rewriting the government’s objectives itself, once it becomes clear that it cannot cope with meeting those objectives.
 
In addition, if you independently dilute the objective, you can of course also say that we coped, we got it done! This is how one can read in ESC’s 2024 annual report that “the tasks set upon the company’s establishment to form the state’s operational reserves have by now been fulfilled.4 As regards food reserves, that task has not been fulfilled, as the National Audit Office has pointed out. Someone is lying, or ESC has created for itself a complete parallel world with its own objectives that has no contact with reality.
 
At the same time, ESC is, among state-owned enterprises, the institution with by far the highest average salary—nearly 5700€ per month. Alongside their other tasks, they have also found time to conduct satisfaction surveys, from which they have learned that “partners assess ESC as a professional, fast-acting and competent organisation, staffed by helpful people who take into account the needs of society and partners, who are open and have good communication skills.4
 
Unfortunately, the highly paid managers there have overlooked the client’s expectation—and, more broadly, society’s as well: not to starve to death in the event of a crisis.
A body that considers itself a centre of competence, however, unfortunately radiates a lack of competence and highly paid, insubordinate ineptitude. If the food reserve has not been created in line with the assignment given by the state and with actual needs, then there is indeed reason to speak of a loss of trust in the management. In any other field, an insubordinate, highly paid manager who engages in freelance improvisation would be sent to the Unemployment Insurance Fund (not to run it). The substantive absence of food reserves for most of society affects everyone. Taking responsibility for the resulting Russian-style bardak is entirely appropriate—perhaps even expected—though it will probably once again require a signal from somewhere above (if it comes at all). Will anyone actually take that responsibility?
 
There is a leadership crisis in civil protection
The food-reserves case is a symptom of a leadership crisis in the field of civil protection. It shows what happens when different ministries and agencies have to cooperate on a single task—the creation of a food reserve. ESC is indeed under the area of governance of the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Communications, but the input for the food reserve comes from the Ministry of Regional Affairs and Agriculture. On the one hand, this is a bureaucratic nightmare in which responsibility is lacking; on the other, it is an ideal scenario for an aggressor, where, to knock over the house of cards of food security, the defenders do the preparatory work themselves, doing the work at best half-heartedly, in a slapdash manner.
 
There has also been talk of “exiling” the food-reserves field under the Ministry of Regional Affairs and Agriculture as a way to solve the problem.5 This is not a solution and will not produce results; it is the last place to take the field. More broadly, however, the problem is that civil protection in general is scattered helter-skelter across the silo towers of ministries and agencies, and this has not produced results elsewhere either—for example, according to the Rescue Board’s latest data, evacuation capability is 1.5% of the population—again, for very few. Narva alone has more people living there.
 
Shuttling the field back and forth between ministries and chopping it up has not produced the desired results in any aspect of civil protection. Strengthening comprehensive national defence can be done effectively, for example, in the Swedish manner, where both military national defence and civil protection have been placed under the Ministry of Defence, with each of the two fields having its own responsible minister. A
 
The never-ending ‘let’s patch the potholes’ dress rehearsal for civil protection is about to enter its fifth year—with the targets still nowhere in sight. Until civil protection and national defence are brought together under the Ministry of Defence, as in Sweden,6 there is no real solution and there will not be one. Managing comprehensive national defence from a single ministry is indispensable for achieving real results, because then the front-line and rear-area perspectives—and their mutual support—gain a strategic outlook in practice. In that case, the resource base is also shared. The Ministry of Defence’s situational-awareness radar sees clearly to the horizon, knows what needs to be done, and does not live in a fantasy world. But if the leadership crisis in civil protection is not resolved, then we will find ourselves in the new decade still having to state that the state remains unable to help its residents.
 
Remarks:
A In Estonia’s context, these ministers inevitably have to come from the same party; otherwise, the result is the all-too-familiar tradition of day-to-day politics overriding the state’s and society’s strategic objectives.
 

Sources:

🟠 The op-ed (by Hannes Nagel) was first published in Delfi’s opinion portal on January 27 in Estonian and January 28 in Russian. Photo: food-reserve cartoon (Kriisiuuringute Keskus, 2026).

1 Hallismaa, M. 2026. Riigi ootused varude keskusele irduvad tegelikkusest. 16.01.2026, ERR

2 Metsalu-Nurminen, I. 2026. Riigi tegevusvaru eesmärk on jätkuvalt täitmata. 23.01.2026, ERR

3 [Anon.], 2021. Valitsus toetas Eesti Varude Keskuse loomist. 11.03.2021, Vabariigi Valitsus

4 [Anon.], 2025. Majandusaasta aruanne 2024. AS Eesti Varude Keskus

5 Ojakivi, M. & Peegel, M. 2026. Terras: minu vastutus on tuua rasked teemad arutellu. 22.01.2026, ERR

6 [Anon.], 2026. Ministry of Defence. Government Office of Sweden

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