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We commented on the state of Estonia’s food reserves on the Aktuaalne Kaamera Nädal programme

kruk — Sun, 01 Feb 2026 18:24:00 +0000

We commented on the state of Estonia’s food reserves on the Aktuaalne Kaamera Nädal programme

On February 1, Hannes Nagel, Head of the Crisis Research Centre, gave an interview on Aktuaalne Kaamera Nädal, the Estonian Public Broadcasting programme, on the topic of Estonia’s state food reserves for civil protection.

We have previously pointed out that the Estonian Stockpiling Agency does not fulfill the task given by the government: a nationwide 14-day state food reserve covering the entire population has not been established, and in reality the existing reserves amount to only approximately three days. We emphasise that although the state has begun supplying shops and fuel stations with generators and working to improve the resilience of food producers, an audit by the National Audit Office has revealed serious shortcomings and inexplicable ad-hoc practices in the activities of the Stockpiling Centre.

We stress that it is important for every person, according to their means, to have at home at least a one-week supply of food, and preferably a two-week supply. At the same time, it is unthinkable that the responsibility for building crisis reserves should rest solely on ordinary citizens. If we look at the average Estonian, they live in an apartment where space is inevitably limited. This places clear constraints on how much and what type of emergency supplies can realistically be stored at home. Therefore, it is not realistic to expect the average Estonian resident—especially in the context of rising living costs—to begin stockpiling months’ worth of food and drinking water in their apartment.

🟠 The programme can be rewatched here from 24:48 to 30:55.

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National food reserve only for a few: sounds like The Hunger Games

kruk — Wed, 28 Jan 2026 17:15:16 +0000

National food reserve only for a few: sounds like The Hunger Games

The National Audit Office has audited the state of the country’s food reserves: whether the reserves exist and to what extent they can be put into use in a crisis. It emerged that even in 2026 the country does not have food reserves to the extent the government has set as a goal—14 days’ worth of food for the entire population, i.e. about 1.3 million people. Instead, the managers of the Estonian Stockpiling Centre have come up with their own goal—a food reserve for a small part of society.

Food reserves are a critically important part of food security—compared to the healthcare system, they are like emergency medical services, which must be immediately available in a crisis. The National Audit Office’s aim was precisely to verify the existence of the food reserves and how quickly they can be brought into use. The report shows that the country still does not have food reserves to the extent the government has set as a goal. There is no 14-day food reserve for the entire population, the creation of which the government has tasked the Estonian Stockpiling Centre (ESC) with.

ESC has, on its own initiative, instead pursued a different target, under which ca 130,000 people—i.e. only a few, just 10% of the population—are covered by food reserves for 30 days. The National Audit Office also doubts whether even this reserve aligns with reality: it has stated clearly that “the set target level does not take into account the possible needs of any specific emergency or national defence crisis,” meaning that as a goal it is, as Auditor General Janar Holm noted, “plucked out of thin air.”¹ In the post-audit counter-communication by the Estonian Stockpiling Centre (ESC), however, there is an attempt to divert attention away from the very serious lack of reserves, talking about everything other than the lack of reserves itself.²

To illustrate the seriousness of the situation, it is appropriate to use a few real-life examples. Applied to a similar situation in a family, this would mean that although the plan was to buy a food reserve for the entire family, only, for example, the father buys it for himself. The remaining family members can figure out on their own how to cope. Probably no further explanation is needed to understand that this is not a normal way to behave.

One can also imagine a parallel from military, national defence, where the Ministry of Defence gives the Estonian Centre for Defence Investments (ECDI) the task of procuring 100 000 shells, 155mm calibre. ECDI decides instead to procure something else altogether, and in a different quantity—for example, 122mm calibre and 500 000 pieces—saying that “it’s almost the same anyway” or that it is some kind of “interim goal”. Since the Estonian Defence Forces cannot actually use what was purchased (because the 122mm howitzers were long ago given to Ukraine; with the wrong calibre there is nothing you can do) and the client’s assignment was ignored, at least two things would likely happen: non-performance would be established and someone would be held responsible. It is obvious that such an error cannot be left uncorrected in any serious way. Otherwise, if indifference is also the norm on the military national defence side, one must ask—where is the credibility of national defence?

Lack of food reserves means hunger

Food reserves are important in themselves: their existence affects every person’s life and the functioning of society at the start of a crisis, when the risk of panic is greatest and, in the case of war, the state could even collapse. From a longer-term perspective, concern about the entire food-security chain is of course justified. Local production and the movement of goods across the border are important, but the risks associated with those, too, are mitigated at the beginning of a crisis by that same on-site food reserve. Therefore, shortcomings in food reserves must not be buried under the argument that there are problems in areas X and Y as well and that we shouldn’t talk only about food reserves. We must talk about them, because they are also independently very important.

At this point it is important to emphasise that most of the national food reserve must be deployable relatively quickly (preferably immediately). If food cannot be obtained from shops and household supplies run out, dissatisfaction inevitably arises, followed by panic. If the reserve requires energy and large-scale processing (turning grain into flour) or complex distribution, it may exist on paper but still fail to reach people in time.

Food shortages during a crisis, however, pose an internal security threat, because the risk increases of moving toward theft and looting. A food reserve is therefore also a very important objective for internal security, as it helps prevent a large share of the problems that tend to arise quickly in crises when food is scarce. Thus, a food reserve is a very important objective for the state in order to ensure the state’s ability to function and the continued functioning of society even in the most difficult times.

High-paid insubordinate freelancing

It is also important to note that ESC was created precisely to end a situation where each ministry dealt with reserves on its own and the result was uneven capability and diffuse responsibility.³ The idea of a central system was to consolidate tasks and responsibility in one place. However, no one seems to have foreseen that the central administrator, a “strategic enterprise”, would begin rewriting the government’s objectives itself, once it becomes clear that it cannot cope with meeting those objectives.

In addition, if you independently dilute the objective, you can of course also say that we coped, we got it done! This is how one can read in ESC’s 2024 annual report that “the tasks set upon the company’s establishment to form the state’s operational reserves have by now been fulfilled.”⁴ As regards food reserves, that task has not been fulfilled, as the National Audit Office has pointed out. Someone is lying, or ESC has created for itself a complete parallel world with its own objectives that has no contact with reality.

At the same time, ESC is, among state-owned enterprises, the institution with by far the highest average salary—nearly 5700€ per month. Alongside their other tasks, they have also found time to conduct satisfaction surveys, from which they have learned that “partners assess ESC as a professional, fast-acting and competent organisation, staffed by helpful people who take into account the needs of society and partners, who are open and have good communication skills”.⁴

Unfortunately, the highly paid managers there have overlooked the client’s expectation—and, more broadly, society’s as well: not to starve to death in the event of a crisis.

A body that considers itself a centre of competence, however, unfortunately radiates a lack of competence and highly paid, insubordinate ineptitude. If the food reserve has not been created in line with the assignment given by the state and with actual needs, then there is indeed reason to speak of a loss of trust in the management. In any other field, an insubordinate, highly paid manager who engages in freelance improvisation would be sent to the Unemployment Insurance Fund (not to run it). The substantive absence of food reserves for most of society affects everyone. Taking responsibility for the resulting Russian-style bardak is entirely appropriate—perhaps even expected—though it will probably once again require a signal from somewhere above (if it comes at all). Will anyone actually take that responsibility?

There is a leadership crisis in civil protection

The food-reserves case is a symptom of a leadership crisis in the field of civil protection. It shows what happens when different ministries and agencies have to cooperate on a single task—the creation of a food reserve. ESC is indeed under the area of governance of the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Communications, but the input for the food reserve comes from the Ministry of Regional Affairs and Agriculture. On the one hand, this is a bureaucratic nightmare in which responsibility is lacking; on the other, it is an ideal scenario for an aggressor, where, to knock over the house of cards of food security, the defenders do the preparatory work themselves, doing the work at best half-heartedly, in a slapdash manner.

There has also been talk of “exiling” the food-reserves field under the Ministry of Regional Affairs and Agriculture as a way to solve the problem.⁵ This is not a solution and will not produce results; it is the last place to take the field. More broadly, however, the problem is that civil protection in general is scattered helter-skelter across the silo towers of ministries and agencies, and this has not produced results elsewhere either—for example, according to the Rescue Board’s latest data, evacuation capability is 1.5% of the population—again, for very few. Narva alone has more people living there.

Shuttling the field back and forth between ministries and chopping it up has not produced the desired results in any aspect of civil protection. Strengthening comprehensive national defence can be done effectively, for example, in the Swedish manner, where both military national defence and civil protection have been placed under the Ministry of Defence, with each of the two fields having its own responsible minister.^A

The never-ending ‘let’s patch the potholes’ dress rehearsal for civil protection is about to enter its fifth year—with the targets still nowhere in sight. Until civil protection and national defence are brought together under the Ministry of Defence, as in Sweden,⁶ there is no real solution and there will not be one. Managing comprehensive national defence from a single ministry is indispensable for achieving real results, because then the front-line and rear-area perspectives—and their mutual support—gain a strategic outlook in practice. In that case, the resource base is also shared. The Ministry of Defence’s situational-awareness radar sees clearly to the horizon, knows what needs to be done, and does not live in a fantasy world. But if the leadership crisis in civil protection is not resolved, then we will find ourselves in the new decade still having to state that the state remains unable to help its residents.

Remarks:

^AIn Estonia’s context, these ministers inevitably have to come from the same party; otherwise, the result is the all-too-familiar tradition of day-to-day politics overriding the state’s and society’s strategic objectives.

Sources:

🟠 The op-ed (by Hannes Nagel) was first published in Delfi’s opinion portal on January 27 in Estonian and January 28 in Russian. Photo: food-reserve cartoon (Kriisiuuringute Keskus, 2026).

¹Hallismaa, M. 2026. Riigi ootused varude keskusele irduvad tegelikkusest. 16.01.2026, ERR.

²Metsalu-Nurminen, I. 2026. Riigi tegevusvaru eesmärk on jätkuvalt täitmata. 23.01.2026, ERR.

³[Anon.], 2021. Valitsus toetas Eesti Varude Keskuse loomist. 11.03.2021, Vabariigi Valitsus.

⁴ [Anon.], 2025. Majandusaasta aruanne 2024. AS Eesti Varude Keskus.

⁵ Ojakivi, M. & Peegel, M. 2026. Terras: minu vastutus on tuua rasked teemad arutellu. 22.01.2026, ERR.

⁶ [Anon.], 2026. Ministry of Defence. Government Office of Sweden.

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The library as a multifunctional component of civil protection

kruk — Tue, 09 Dec 2025 12:09:16 +0000

The library as a multifunctional component of civil protection

Throughout history, libraries have been seen as repositories of knowledge and culture, but the modern library is much more than that. The library is a hub of the social nervous system, through which critical information flows, space is provided for communities, and resilience to democracy is (re)created. Libraries also have a role to play in times of crisis.

Libraries do not require tickets, do not impose class boundaries, and are open to anyone who wants to learn, socialize, or simply be in a safe shared space. Where the compulsion to consume disappears, space for thinking and noticing emerges. This is the essence of democracy: access to information and a sense of community that comes from being together and realizing that other people are actually quite normal. In contrast to the algorithmic echo chambers of social media, libraries can break down silos and bring together people with different views and experiences who share the same physical space and forum for discussion.

Libraries are institutions of freedom—they protect freedom of thought, ensure equal access to information, and teach critical skills, including how to find reliable information. These are tools of democracy, the absence of which opens the door to manipulation and disinformation. Free nationwide access is not just a convenience, but a strategic resource. Even in times of crisis – as we saw in Estonia when Ukrainian war refugees used libraries to learn the language, familiarize themselves with the culture, and acquire new job skills – all in order to integrate into society and find their place in our economy and communities.

However, libraries only survive thanks to library staff. Recently, I have noticed an increasing use of self-service technology in libraries – at least in some libraries, items can be conveniently borrowed and returned using a machine. On the one hand, this is a great opportunity for libraries – it frees up the time of library professionals for advising people or community work, but at the same time, we must be vigilant.

The introduction of machines may discourage human contact in libraries, and the introduction of machines must not be used as an argument for laying off competent employees in order to save costs. A machine may be convenient for borrowing and returning items, but it does not notice people in need, nor does it recommend reading material that would broaden your worldview or help you understand a complex topic. If machines become an excuse to cut librarian jobs, we will lose something irreplaceable – the knowledge that someone is really listening and can guide you, as well as people who can help you in times of crisis.

A recent study (Lopatovska et al., 2025) highlights Ukraine’s experience, which, in my opinion, shows that a regular community library can literally be a matter of life and death.¹ Since February 2022, nearly 700 library buildings have been damaged or destroyed,² but the slogan “Незламні бібліотеки” (unbreakable libraries) remains. In wartime, libraries have become “dual-purpose” civil defense facilities: they protect people and preserve culture. Reading rooms in basements have been converted into shelters (some of which are open 24 hours a day), where those in need can get information, warmth, internet access, and a little rest. They also serve as volunteer centers where camouflage nets are woven for the army, trench candles are poured, and aid packages are packed. Library staff teach media literacy even during wartime, and so-called “fortress libraries” cover their rare items with sandbags or scan them with battery-powered devices to preserve them for future generations.

Maintaining the mental health of children and young people is also part of this work – for example, bibliotherapy corners and mobile reading buses reach those whose schools have been destroyed.³ A study by the Ukrainian Ministry of Health confirms that readings led by psychologists help reduce PTSD symptoms, but perhaps most telling is the fact that libraries in liberated settlements are reopening within weeks of the end of mine clearance. In essence, as soon as it is possible and safety is guaranteed. That is how important the role of libraries is.

We have a lot to learn from this experience. Statistics Estonia data for 2023 show that only 34% of people over the age of 15 visit libraries – this figure has fallen by nearly 6 percentage points in ten years.4 Visitor numbers are lowest in Ida-Viru County. Although the proportion of visitors among young people (aged 15–25) is over 60%, this has also fallen by 10% in ten years. There is also a gender gap – 43% of women and only 24.5% of men visit libraries.4 These are not just cultural statistics, but indicators of social cohesion, education, and information literacy.

It should also be borne in mind that every euro invested in libraries is also an investment in the capacity of shelters, community resilience, digital inclusion, and cultural resistance, i.e., broad-based national defense.

Libraries are not a “nice addition” to the culture budget, but a critical element of civil protection, and it is regrettable that this has to be explained using the example of a war against a neighboring country. What is happening in Ukraine also answers the question of whether and what role libraries play in crises and civil protection. It also explains why we must prepare for this here – individually, communally, and institutionally, including in libraries – because in a military crisis, no area remains untouched.

The op-ed (Hannes Nagel) was originally published in the magazine Raamatukogu (4/2025, pp. 14–15). Read the entire piece here.

Sources

¹Lopatovska, I., Pickering, G., & Coan, C., 2025. Ukrainian public libraries during the Russia-Ukraine war: Supporting individuals, communities, and the nation. Journal of Librarianship and Information Science.

² (Anon.), 2025. Опис проєкту. ПЕН.

³ Aksjonova, N., 2024. Bibliotherapy as a Direction of Library Activity under the Russian-Ukrainian War. Наукові праці Національної бібліотеки України імені В.І. Вернадського, 64, pp. 107-119.

⁴ (Anon.), 2025. Raamatukogud ja raamatud. Statistikaamet.

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Japanese bear crisis

kruk — Sat, 22 Nov 2025 11:50:15 +0000

Japanese bear crisis

Akita Prefecture, with its 880,000 residents, has become the epicenter of Japan’s bear crisis. The main troublemakers are the persimmon-loving Asian black bears, weighing around 180 kilograms. The crisis has driven people to carry bells and spray cans, and it has forced local governments to close parks, halt postal services, and even send soldiers to patrol the mountains.

In 2025, Japan is facing one of the most serious human–wildlife conflicts in its recent history. The country is home to two major bear species: the Hokkaido brown bear, a large and powerful northern species, and the Asian black bear, which inhabits the mountainous regions of Honshu, Shikoku, and Kyushu. Both species typically stay away from populated areas, but this year their behavior has shifted — the surge in attacks, and the growing number of bears appearing in residential areas and even indoors, shows that the usual distance between humans and wildlife is rapidly disappearing.

Bear-related incidents are escalating into a cross-prefectural crisis. In October alone, 88 attacks and seven fatalities were recorded — the bleakest monthly figure in a decade. Between April and October, 13 people were killed and 184 injured by bears across 21 prefectures, with the highest numbers reported in Akita, Iwate, and Fukushima.1

The increase in attacks is the result of several interacting factors. Experts link the situation to both climate change and a growing bear population: storms and shifting weather patterns have damaged the harvest of beech nuts and other forest crops that make up the bears’ main autumn food supply. This year’s acorn and nut yield was particularly poor, leaving mountain-dwelling bears without enough food before hibernation.

Hunger is driving them downhill, where easily accessible food sources — fruit trees, waste, garden produce, and livestock feed — lie at the very edge of villages and towns. As a result, bears are entering settlements more frequently, becoming bolder, and remaining active longer, which increases the risk of encounters and attacks throughout the autumn–winter season.

The impact on local residents is severe

Where villages were once separated from the mountains by a buffer zone of farms and fields, that protective layer has now faded, and bears are moving ever closer to inhabited areas. At the same time, the state has responded forcefully — special units have been dispatched to support local hunters, drones patrol above parks, and researchers have developed a “bear-encounter prediction map” that uses artificial intelligence to forecast risks. Yet tension persists, and everyday routines have changed.

Children are no longer sent to school alone, shops open later, walks are taken only while carrying defensive tools, and tourism has suffered. In communities shaken by bear incidents, fear, exhaustion, and resistance to drastic measures intertwine — some traditional matagi hunters oppose aggressive culling, while some residents demand harsher steps. Amid all this, a shared feeling has taken hold: after years of restrictions and crises, people long for a sense of security, yet now they must live with the knowledge that a bear may be waiting just around the corner.²

The increasing appearance of bears near populated areas is already disrupting several essential services, including postal and courier work. When the police or local authorities declare an area bear-dangerous, or when employees consider the situation unsafe, all delivery services in that area are suspended. To reduce risk, Japan’s postal service has stopped evening motorcycle deliveries to dangerous zones and asks customers to allow postal vans to enter their property so that workers do not have to proceed on foot.³The result has been delays and temporary closures at post offices.

Akita Prefecture’s warning to residents on 10 November illustrates the gravity of the situation: in Kazuno City, an Asian black bear attacked a person right outside their home — one of many such incidents that have become more frequent this year. The local government cautions that bears are being spotted far more often than usual even near residential areas, and urges people to make noise while walking outdoors and remain alert to their surroundings to avoid unexpected encounters. Three days earlier, the municipality had issued another notice, reminding residents that bears may not enter hibernation if they continue to find food. For that reason, people are asked to remove late-autumn fruits from trees, collect fallen branches and fruit, and thin out trees if necessary, so that food scents do not keep bears lingering around populated areas.

The bear crisis has also driven innovation in crisis management

ts seriousness is reflected in the involvement of other countries: the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom have recently issued travel advisories regarding bear-related risks in Japan, and the U.S. Embassy in Japan released an official safety alert to American citizens,⁴ highlighting Hokkaido, Sapporo, and Akita as particularly affected. The recommendations urge people to avoid roads and parks near bear habitats, not travel alone, make noise in nature, carry bear spray, and report encounters directly to local authorities. These guidelines mirror those issued by Japanese municipalities themselves: keep doors and sheds closed, avoid leaving food waste outdoors, clear fruit from trees, protect fields with electric fencing, and improve visibility around homes and farmland.

The rapid escalation of the bear crisis has become both a threat and a catalyst for innovation in Japan. To understand the multifaceted risk landscape and support more effective crisis management, researchers from Sophia University’s Applied Data Science Program developed a predictive model that estimates the likelihood of bear encounters in Akita Prefecture.⁵ The model achieves nearly 64% accuracy and incorporates previous sightings, time and date, land use, population distribution, weather conditions, road networks, elevation, and the availability of beech nuts. Using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis, a method in Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI), the researchers found that bear appearances are most strongly influenced by patterns of past sightings, land-cover types (such as built-up areas, rice fields, and bamboo forests), the concentration of elderly residents, and terrain elevation. The findings were published on July 22, 2025 in the International Journal of Data Science and Analytics, illustrating how a crisis can accelerate the development of scientific and technological solutions.⁶

A dedicated crisis map has also been developed for Akita Prefecture to support the management of the bear crisis.⁸

The bear crisis has also shown how rising demand for practical safety solutions can rapidly generate entirely new innovations. As bears increasingly appear near homes, schools, and camps, a concrete need has emerged for temporary public hiding spaces. Responding to this demand, the company Jacacon, working together with researchers, developed a bear-resistant shelter container — a reinforced, shipping-container-based structure capable of withstanding the force of a brown bear attack and providing people with a safe place to take cover during danger.⁷ The product is aimed at both private users and municipalities seeking to strengthen protection measures in high-risk areas, and in the Estonian context it is analogous to what is defined as a public hiding place.

Japan’s decision to deploy the Japan Self-Defense Forces (JSDF, 自衛隊) to Akita Prefecture marks a step previously regarded as extreme, prompted by the deepening bear crisis. According to the Ministry of Defense, units are being sent into mountainous areas to set up traps and assist with the removal of dead animals, as local resources are becoming exhausted and the prefectural governor formally requested state support.⁹However, the soldiers themselves do not take part in hunting bears — that responsibility remains with local hunters — not because of a lack of capability, but because of constitutional limitations. The JSDF is permitted to use weapons only for self-defense in situations that meet strict criteria related to military attack; they are not allowed to apply force against animals. As a result, soldiers may carry weapons to protect themselves and local residents, but not for bear hunting, and they also lack the training required for such activity. Thus, the state’s intervention in the bear crisis takes shape primarily as logistical and technical support, helping affected regions manage the threat while remaining within the bounds of the constitution.¹⁰

The bear crisis also shows the need for resilience hubs

Japan’s 2025 bear crisis is an example of how ecological, demographic, and social factors can erode the balance that once existed in landscapes shared between humans and wildlife. Vegetation damaged by storms and climate change — particularly the poor harvest of beech nuts and acorns — has left bears without food and pushed them toward villages, towns, and farmland. At the same time, rural depopulation and the declining number of hunters have weakened the “buffer” that once existed between people and the mountains, expanding high-risk areas and increasing the number of attacks.

The intrusion of bears into residential neighbourhoods, the disruption of essential services, and the need to involve both the police and the Self-Defense Forces show how a natural hazard can quickly develop into a societal crisis felt across multiple sectors. It is precisely in such situations that the role of resilience centres becomes essential — not merely as places to shelter, but as coordinated support hubs that bring together information, communities, services, and decision-making.

The PIMA project, which focuses on mapping good practices for creating and developing resilience hubs based on Ukraine’s experience and applying them in municipalities in Estonia and Sweden, demonstrates that complex risks cannot be addressed through isolated warning messages or sector-specific measures alone.

What is needed is multi-level cooperation and a unified support structure that helps communities cope both with unexpected military situations and with seemingly “ordinary” environmental hazards that can escalate rapidly. Japan’s experience — where even bear-resistant shelter containers have entered the market as an extension of public services — illustrates how a crisis generates demand for solutions that ensure public safety and the continuity of daily life. Estonia’s own experience with wolf attacks shows similarly that a conflict does not need to reach the scale seen in Japan to require clear, community-aligned leadership. Both the Japanese and Ukrainian examples reinforce the core insight of the PIMA project: cooperation with communities and the establishment of resilience hubs are effective ways to strengthen the capacity needed to help communities withstand both natural and social crises, grounded in knowledge, collaboration, and local needs.

Could the same happen in Estonia?

In Estonia, conflicts between bears and humans have never escalated into a crisis comparable to Japan’s, but signs of tension in human–large carnivore coexistence are present here as well. Estonia’s brown bear population is one of the largest in Europe and has grown steadily over the past decade, leading to more frequent sightings on the edges of settlements and occasional incidents in which hungry or curious bears wander into yards or approach beehives. These cases have not been massive or widely dangerous, as Estonia’s natural food base for bears remains stable and bears are generally wary of humans, but each early-summer incident triggers noticeable public debate.

By comparison, wolves are a much more significant point of tension in Estonia: fluctuations in the wolf population, attacks on livestock, and disputes over hunting quotas have repeatedly drawn public attention and created strong friction between rural residents, conservationists, and authorities. Unlike bears, wolves rarely approach people, but their impact on households is more indirect — through livestock losses, fear, and broader effects on rural life. In both bear and wolf cases, Estonia’s experience shows that the conflict does not necessarily become a direct threat to human life, yet it brings social tension and a need for clear, science-based management that accounts for both community perspectives and nature conservation. This is also a key lesson from Japan’s crisis.

Japan’s solutions to the bear crisis require science-based population management, habitat restoration, and community preparedness, because as long as the mountains fail to provide bears with sufficient food and space, the human–bear conflict will remain a persistent and visible part of daily life in Japan.

Travelling to Japan? Here are 5 tips for staying safe in bear-prone areas::

avoid walking alone in areas where bears have been seen, and close doors so bears cannot enter buildings;
keep an eye on your surroundings at all times and avoid places with poor visibility;
make noise while moving (a bell, radio, phone) to deter bears;
report every bear sighting to the local municipality and police, and to the community if necessary;
keep food, feed, and waste containers securely closed or protected with electric fencing.

Images: guidance for residents (Akita Prefecture, 2025). Overview compiled by Hannes Nagel (Crisis Research Centre, 2025).

Sources:

¹ [Anon.]., 2025a. October bear attack casualties in Japan hit ten-year high. NHK, 17.11.2025.

² Hernández, J. C. & Notoya, K. 2025. The Hunt Is On for Bears in Japan After Deadly Attacks. The New York Times, 20.11.2025.

³ [Anon.]., 2025b. クマ出没等に伴う業務の見合わせについて. Japan Post, 5.11.2025.

⁴ [Anon.]., 2025c. Wildlife Alert: U.S. Embassy Tokyo. U.S. Embassy and Consulates in Japan, 12..11.2025.

⁵ [Anon.]., 2025d.クマとの遭遇リスクをAIで予測するモデルを開発 [Development of an AI model to predict the risk of bear encounters]. Sophia University, 20.11.2025.

⁶ Nakamoto, S. & Fukazawa, Y. 2025. Bear warning: predicting encounters using temporal, environmental, and demographic features. International Journal of Data Science and Analytics, 20, pp. 7107–7125.

^⁷Baseel, C. 2025. Bear attack shelters going on sale in Japan as country experiences record high number of incidents. Japan Today, 17.11.2025.

^⁸[Anon.]., 2025e. ツキノワグマ等情報マップシステム (クマダス). [Black bear information map system Kumadas].

^⁹ Hernández, J. C. & Kiuko Notoya, K. 2025. Japan to Send Troops to Help Stop Bear Attacks. The New York Times, 29.10.2025.

^¹⁰ [Anon.]., 2025f. Japan deploys Self-Defense Forces to counter a surge in bear attacks. The Mainichi, 06.11.2025.

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Security as a common good: Crisis Research Centre took part in the discussion “Living Experiments in Crisis Preparedness”

kruk — Fri, 13 Jun 2025 21:00:02 +0000

Security as a common good: Crisis Research Centre took part in the discussion “Living Experiments in Crisis Preparedness”

Is security solely the responsibility of the state? At the public discussion event “Living Experiments in Crisis Preparedness”, the CEO of the Crisis Research Centre, Hannes Nagel, emphasized the importance of understanding security as a shared responsibility – one that goes beyond military defense and includes community resilience and individual preparedness.

Nagel pointed out that civil preparedness in Estonia remains limited. Many households would struggle to cope with a crisis lasting more than three days. “We need to think of security as a common good – not just something maintained by the army and our allies, but something that also depends on our homes, our neighborhoods, and our everyday readiness,” he said.

He also highlighted that for many people, the lack of preparedness is not due to ignorance, but due to limited financial and physical resources. “For some, stockpiling emergency supplies is simply not an option – if you’re already struggling with daily expenses, buying extra food and water isn’t realistic. And in many apartment buildings, there just isn’t enough space to store emergency provisions,” Nagel explained. That’s why broader solutions are needed – not just at the individual level, but through community efforts and public policy as well.

As head of the Crisis Research Centre, Nagel contributed a research-based perspective and stressed the importance of collaboration. Raising awareness, sharing practical skills, and building trust at the community level are all key to strengthening society’s resilience in the face of crises.

The event was part of the “Living experiments” series, which invites participants to reflect on how each of us can help shape a safer, more compassionate, and more resilient society. The project “Security as a Common Good” is carried out under the umbrella of the Green European Foundation and supported by the European Parliament. The recorded discussion is available here.

Photo: discussion at Vabamu (Tasaarengu Eesti, 2025).

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Community preparedness in action: Kohtla-Järve equipped for emergencies

kruk — Tue, 27 May 2025 08:34:00 +0000

Community preparedness in action: Kohtla-Järve equipped for emergencies

An important step has been taken to strengthen local crisis preparedness in Kohtla-Järve — Crisis Research Centre has handed over the city’s first community emergency supplies to local representatives. This initiative is part of the Community Civil Protection Project, aimed at enhancing the ability of local communities to cope independently during crises.

The supplies were handed over under the coordination of Joosep Mägi, the city’s crisis preparedness specialist. The stock includes essential items that can help community members manage during various emergencies, such as water, electricity, or food shortages. Among the supplies are first aid materials, water purification tablets, freeze-dried food, and other critical resources.

“Cooperation with the Crisis Research Centre has improved Kohtla-Järve’s community crisis preparedness by providing knowledge, skills, and essential emergency supplies. I recommend this programme to other municipalities as well—it boosts community readiness for different crises and contributes to the city’s overall preparedness,” said Joosep Mägi.

These community emergency supplies are not intended to support the entire city for an extended period but are meant to provide temporary aid to those who may be the first to face difficulties or may not receive immediate assistance. The selection of items was made in cooperation with the Estonian Rescue Board and takes into account local risks and needs.

The collaboration between the city and the non-profit organization is part of a broader approach that recognizes the crucial role of communities in crisis preparedness. Joint efforts, such as stockpiling supplies and sharing knowledge, help ensure a faster and more effective response when a crisis occurs.

The creation of Kohtla-Järve’s community emergency stockpile was supported by the community civil protection project K-36, funded by the National Foundation of Civil Society with the support of the Ministry of the Interior.

🟧🟦 The activities of the K-36 project will be carried out by the Crisis Research Centre, and the implementation of the project activities is supported by the Civil Society Foundation through the Ministry of the Interior.

Photo: standardised crisis stock sets awaiting dispatch (Crisis Research Centre, 2025).

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We talked about the civil defence and crisis preparedness on Äripäev radio’s morning programme

kruk — Tue, 14 Jan 2025 10:00:24 +0000

We talked about the civil defence and crisis preparedness on Äripäev radio’s morning programme

On January 14, Hannes Nagel, the head of the Crisis Research Centre, appeared as a guest on Äripäev radio’s morning program to discuss Estonia’s civil defense and crisis preparedness.

The visit to Äripäev radio was a follow-up to a longer article “No requirements – no shelters” (pages 26-29) in Ehitaja 4(275), published in Spring 2023. In the article, we highlighted the concerns of shelter policy, the lack of shelters, and the gap in legislation.

According to the programme, the state of shelter construction in Estonia is now relatively similar to that of spring 2023. “The shelter system in Estonia is currently based on public hiding places, which provide primary protection from flying objects. Unfortunately, public hiding places are not bomb shelters, and we still do not have them in Estonia,” Nagel stated.

The radio program also discussed the law amending the Emergency Situations Act. “A draft amendment to the Emergency Preparedness Act, which includes requirements for the construction of bomb shelters, has gone through the consultation stage, but there have been no responses. It’s encouraging that Finland, in particular, is setting an example. Bomb shelters, as defined by the new law, are specifically built for sheltering purposes, whereas public hiding places are previously existing buildings or parts of buildings adapted for this purpose, and thus do not provide equivalent protection,” said Nagel.

The visit to the radio can be summarised as follows. The state of crisis preparedness is concerning, as there are no bomb shelters capable of protecting against direct hits, and existing public hiding places provide only minimal protection against flying objects. At the same time, the population’s awareness and preparedness for crisis situations is extremely low, with costs passed on to end users, making housing unaffordable for many, emphasising the need for a stronger national contribution to civil defence.

🎙️ Listen to the programme here and read the 2023 article on the Äripeäv portal.

Photo: Kirke Ert/ERR, 2023.

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